A B C, easy as quantum mechanics

On last night’s ‘Boots ‘n’ All’, The Almighty Angela Powers gave Salford a ‘B’ grade in concluding her assessment of Salford’s bid for a Super League licence. Can’t grumble at that, she’s rated us above Super League’s own Castleford and Wakefield. Using Sky’s theory, that puts Salford in the big time for 2009. Great. Well…not that great. If only The RFL’s decision making process was as simple and inconsistent as Mrs Powers’s. In truth, the application process isn’t straightfoward. It isn’t black and white. As Shaun McRae himself said on the programme, Salford’s application is a thick as few telephone directories; and there are a raft of scenarios The RFL are contemplating, rather than merely whether there’ll be 12 or 14 teams included?

For example, Powers’s score card marked Salford down for being within a 20-mile radius of other Super League clubs, or rather, potental licensees—recognised as a criterion point. However, as David Tarry pointed out at last week’s Forever Reds meeting and Shaun McRae alluded to yesterday, the issue is based more on catchment area than a basic geometric shape. St Helens, Wigan and Warrington are amongst those clubs within a 20-mile radius of Salford, yet, presumably, our club wouldn’t be promoting their business in those areas. At a guess, the Reds’ catchment area will be in the region of: Salford, Manchester, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Tameside and closer parts of Stockport and Trafford. Salford are the closest and most likely Super League licensee around this area, where in some cases, rugby league has been tried before with varying degrees of success (or indeed, failure). The Guardian’s Andy Wilson, for one, has criticised Salford in the past for not promoting themselves around Manchester and North & East Greater Manchester. No doubt Salford want to be able to attract people living in these areas, rather than from Cheshire and Merseyside, where the competition is certainly stronger.

Two points where Powers gave Salford a tick, however, was on solvency and previous playing contribution to Super League. Firstly, on solvency, if a club isn’t solvent before the bids are in, are they really going to admit that they are insolvent? Second, if a club is proven to be insolvent, then surely, that should be the end of their licence bid. It’s like somebody applying for a job as a chinese interpreter but not being able to speak chinese—the dream ends right there. Yet I’m making an assumption. I don’t know what the criterion stipluates, hardly any of us do. No doubt it is complex and certainly way over my head. That said, even insolvency hasn’t stopped a number of clubs in the recent past from starting afresh. If the application process has any merit in this area, surely it should consider trading names too rather than just the failed companies behind them.

Regarding the Reds’ contribution to Super League, Sky are evaluating the pass mark as an average finish of 8th position and above over the last three seasons. Apparently, Salford weigh in at 8.6. I haven’t looked to confirm that, nor can I be arsed. In reality, only four, perhaps five clubs at a stretch, can claim to have really contributed to the compeition in the last few years. Getting to the Grand Final, or maybe the final eliminator is what I’d call being in a serious position to win it. Taking our average of 8.6 as red then, it must be red pen time for that criterion. Yet with scant disregard for her own policies, Powers passed us because we’ve entertained during that period. We can only hope messrs. Lewis, Wood et al won’t be as gung ho when it comes to deciding the future of rugby league clubs.

You can’t blame Powers and Sky for reviewing and evaluating potential franchises. They are trying to simplify the process for the layman, as well as entertaining the viewers in the process, which they are doing quite well. The problem with the results Sky are portraying is that they will instil misconfidence or apathy amongst certain fans, depending on how their clubs score; therefore building pressure and anxiety amongst said supporters up until the real verdicts are revealed in late July.

Celtic. No, Widnes. No, Toulouse. Oh I give up

About six weeks ago, Code XIII’s guys came down to a Forever Reds meeting to interview fans on which clubs they thought would be successful in their respective SL licence applications. Back then, it seemed relatively clear cut: Salford and Celtic Crusaders. Work had begun on Salford’s new ground and there’s a buzz around The Willows. Meanwhile vibes from other supporters’ assumptions suggested that The RFL would never turn down a licence from South Wales. Especially when there are people willing to invest to make Celtic Crusaders a Super League club. A rarity one presumes. Toulouse, we thought, would be a long shot. Is it too soon for another French club? And Widnes, recently punished for going into administration—a product of putting all their chemicals into one test tube—and sans 12 points, were hardly flavour of the last few months. However, there seems to have been a shift.

Andy Wilson was first up, poo-pooing 2009 licence applications from National League clubs, citing a compromise on on-field quality. Then Chris Irvine alluded to favouring Widnes (along with Salford) rather than Celtic on his Times RL blog. More recently, you get the feeling that those ‘in the know’ fancy Widnes to make it. Seemingly they are making the right noises and are doing the right things. Meanwhile, Celtic are struggling to prove they can achieve anywhere near the required interest. The traditionalists will certainly be happy.

But hang on. If the RL public’s confidence in Celtic on the wane, this week, two eminent characters spoke up for their inclusion to Super League: Jonathon Davies, favouring the guilt trip approach and Shaun Edwards, the unlikely national hero and an Englishman even the Welsh will listen to after helping to steer Wales RU to the Six Nations crown. And what of Toulouse. They host the forthcoming international between France and England. No doubt a PR drive will accompany it extoling the need for another Super League club in France.

So we’re no clearer on who are the favourites to make it. Perhaps Castelford and Wakefield will be dropped Um…isn’t poseession nine-tenths of the law though? As a Salford fan, you have to be fairly confident that we’ll make it, but it’s far from clear cut, and more messy than we perhaps thought a couple of months ago. I’m still not sold on the fact that the decsions on who gets a franchise are made soley by The RFL. Perhaps an independent body, where applications could be assessed by third-party experts, would imply total impartiality, and certainly instil more confidence in the supporters regarding the transparency of the process. I suppose we’ll just have to trust The RFL on this one, and the strength of Salford’s licence bid.